Markets

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How Market Prices Work

Foresight Markets uses a straightforward probability-based pricing model. Every share costs between $0.01 and $0.99, and every winning share pays exactly $1.00 at resolution. No ambiguity. No hidden mechanics.

The Pricing Model

$0.01 – $0.99

Share Price Range

Reflects 1% – 99% implied probability

$1.00

Winning Share Pays

Fixed payout, win side only

$0.00

Losing Share Pays

Max loss = amount spent

$0.00Share Price = Implied Probability$1.00

$0.62 YES ▼

$0.38 NO ▲

Unlikely (0%)Certain (100%)

Worked Example

Market: "Will the Fed cut rates before December 2025?" — current YES price: $0.62

Position	Share Price	Shares Bought	Total Cost	Payout if Correct	Net Profit	Implied Probability
YES	$0.62	100	$62.00	$100.00	+$38.00	62%
NO	$0.38	100	$38.00	$100.00	+$62.00	38%

Example uses pre-fee prices for clarity. A 2% transaction fee applies at the time of purchase. Your trading screen always shows the all-in cost before you confirm. Past market outcomes do not predict future results. Trading involves risk; only trade what you can afford to lose.

Frequently Asked Questions

Quick Reference

YES + NO priceAlways = $1.00

Win payout$1.00 per share

Loss payout$0.00 per share

Transaction fee2% per trade

Max lossAmount spent only

Resolution sourcePer market rules

Profit Formula

If you win

Profit = ($1.00 − Price) × Shares

e.g. ($1.00 − $0.62) × 100 = $38.00

If you lose

Loss = Price × Shares

e.g. $0.62 × 100 = $62.00 max

Risk Disclosure

Trading on prediction markets involves financial risk. Share prices fluctuate with market sentiment. You may lose the full amount you invest. Past market accuracy does not guarantee future results. Only trade with funds you are prepared to lose. Foresight Markets does not provide investment advice.

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Foresight Markets

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